Forecast Updates

Instructions
To use these Forecast Updates do the following:

  1. Download the update file
  2. Create a New National Control
  3. On the Select Inputs screen click the Macroeconomic Values tile
  4. Click the Import button under the File Tools group in the menu
  5. Select the file you previously downloaded and click OK. You will then be given an option to rename the assumption file if you want to.
  6. Select the assumption that was just added and click on the checkbox on the assumption card so that it is green.
  7. Click OK to use the assumption with this new National Control
  8. Run the new National Control and use it for future forecasts.

RSQE May Update


This macroeconomic update of the short-term national forecast is based on the U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020-2022 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) release on May 18, 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves rapidly and shelter-in-place orders have been implemented extensively in the U.S., the slowdown in production and the decline in demand are exacerbated. Real GDP decreased 5% in the first quarter of 2020 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Unemployment rate reached 14.7% in April 2020 according the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, economic policy responses from the Federal Reserve and the stimulus bills have taken place to battle the harmful effects of the pandemic. This update assumes that the economic contraction is severe and the swift and aggressive policy responses to the pandemic maintains the possibility of a partial snapback in later 2020 and a slow recovery from then on. In addition, this forecast update is based the assumption that social distancing and other precautions will continue into 2021 and there will not be a surge of new COVID-19 cases as the economy gradually reopens.


Download the RSQE May Macroeconomic Update

RSQE August & CBO September Macroeconomic Update

This macroeconomic update of the national forecast is based on three data sources: The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020-2022 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) released on August 24, 2020; An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from CBO released on July 2, 2020; and An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from CBO released on September 2, 2020.

Download the RSQE August & September CBO Macroeconomic Update