October 15, 2007

Economic Modeling for the Analysis of Pandemic Influenza

This study was prepared by the Department of Homeland Security, National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center, Infrastructure Analysis and Strategy Division, and the Office of Infrastructure Protection. This study evaluates the short-term and long-term impacts of pandemic influenza on U.S. households and industrial output. Infrastructures have incurred short-term disruptions while the nation’s population and workforce have decreased in absolute terms. Consumer spending reductions also result from the psychological impacts of the outbreak. The U.S. economy has proven resilient to disasters and will likely return to its previous growth rate trend. However, due to mortality associated with a pandemic, the base from which growth occurs would be smaller. Based on prior pandemics, the REMI model estimates the impacts of workplace absenteeism from a macroeconomic perspective.

Department of Homeland Security – Economic Modeling for the Analysis of Pandemic Influenza [Full PDF]