December 12, 2007

Predicting Housing Price Changes in States and MSAs Using Area Specific Price Elasticities

REMI Policy Insight 9.5 was able to represent the housing supply differences across the United States. Areas with a constrained housing supply ended up with lower economic forecasts and areas with an unconstrained housing development supply are estimated to enjoy a larger population, employment growth, and positive output forecasts. Housing price dynamics have been one of the most widely followed economic concepts as of late, with special attention paid to the state and local levels. From January 2000 to the peak of June 2006, the S&P/Case-Schiller home price index more than doubled (from 100 to 206.39), although it has since rounded back out to 199.18 on a national level.

REMI – Predicting Housing Price Changes [full PDF]