Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of AB32 on the California Economy: Alternative Allocation Strategies for Cap and Trade

A 169-sector REMI PI+ California model was used to estimate various types of indirect, macroeconomic impacts of California Assembly Bill 32, The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 in terms of both the aggregate impacts on the State’s economy and the distribution of impacts across sectors and income groups. The study and its corresponding modeling found that the aggregate impacts of AB32 were estimated to be very slightly positive, AB32 was slightly more labor-intensive than the average operation of the California Economy, consumers benefited from improved energy efficiency in their own homes and in businesses providing them with goods and services, and auctioning greenhouse gas emission allowances provided opportunities for recycling revenues, among other key findings.

Adam Rose and Associates – Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of AB32 on the California Economy: Alternative Allocation Strategies for Cap and Trade [full PDF]

Economic Analysis of a Program to Promote Clean Transportation Fuels in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Region

The potential economic impacts of reducing carbon emissions from transportation fuels in the eleven state northeast and Mid-Atlantic region were analyzed by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management using the REMI Policy Insight model. Some of the key findings from the study were a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions with the introduction of more low carbon fuels into the transportation sector, a reduction of gasoline and diesel use by 12 to 29 percent upon full implementation of the program, and the enhancement of energy security due to diversifying transportation fuels away from those produced from imported oil and toward domestic alternatives.

NESCAUM – Economic Analysis of a Program to Promote Clean Transportation Fuels in the Northeast Mid-Atlantic Region [full PDF]

Socioeconomic Assessment for Proposed Amended Rule 1193-Clean On-Road Residential and Commercial Refuse Collection Vehicles

Proposed Amended Rule 1193 clarified the applicability of requirements for public fleet operators, except federal fleets, to purchase alternative-fuel rolloff, transfer, and solid waste collection vehicles in consideration of the agreement between the Engine Manufacturers Association, Western States Petroleum Association, and the Air Quality Management District. The REMI PI+ model assessed the total socioeconomic impacts of a policy change by linking the economic activities in the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino and displayed the impacts by sector for two potential scenarios tied to this proposed amended rule. Overall, the projected increases in the cost of production and delivered prices indicated that the impact on the regional economy’s competitiveness relative to their national counterparts would be small.

South Coast Air Quality Management District – Proposed Amended Rule 1193-Clean On-Road Residential and Commercial Refuse Collection Vehicles [full PDF]

Socioeconomic Assessment for Proposed Amended Rule 1143-Consumer Paint Thinners and Multi-purpose Solvents

The REMI model was used for conducting a socioeconomic analysis by the South Coast Air Quality Management District that assessed the impacts of Proposed Amended Rule 1143-Consumer Paint Thinners and Multi-purpose Solvents. The proposed rule amendments would reduce volatile organic compounds emissions by 3.81 tons per day by 2012, which would contribute towards attaining the federal PM 2.5 and ozone standards in 2014 and 2024, respectively. The analysis included two scenarios to bracket a range of potential impacts, which were the cost of PAR 1143 incurred either by consumers as price increased or by manufacturers who would have to reformulate their products to meet the requirement for PAR 1143. The first scenario determined that consumers might experience an increase in the product price of $3-$42 per gallon, with the majority of price increases expected to be $11 per gallon. The second scenario revealed that $3.5 million would be borne by local manufacturers, on average, from 2011 to 2013, with the remainder of the $13.8 million average annual compliance cost would be paid by manufacturers outside the Air Quality Management District.

South Coast Air Quality Management District – Socioeconomic Assessment for Proposed Amended Rule 1143-Consumer Paint Thinners and Multi-purpose Solvents [full PDF]

Macroeconomic Assessment of the Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan

The REMI PI+ model was applied to this study to analyze the impacts of major greenhouse gas mitigation options at the macroeconomic level in Pennsylvania for the policy horizon of 2009-2020, resulting in significantly positive net impacts on the State’s economy. While many mitigation activities had dampening effects or incurred costs, as when electricity production was reduced or when new equipment that does not pay for itself was purchased, these were more than offset by shifts in spending out of energy savings and by the stimulus of business in the state that produced the necessary equipment. The modeling in this study resulted in the macroeconomic impacts of 27 of the 42 work plans being positive, which meant implementing these plans would bring about a positive stimulus to the Pennsylvania state economy by increasing the gross state product and creating more jobs, and the mitigation work plans from the Residential and Commercial sector and the Industrial sector would yield the highest positive impacts on the economy, followed by the work plans from the Agriculture sector and Waste Management sector.

The Center for Climate Strategies – Macroeconomic Assessment of the Pennsylvania Climate Action Plan [full PDF]