Economic Modeling for the Analysis of Pandemic Influenza

This study was prepared by the Department of Homeland Security, National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center, Infrastructure Analysis and Strategy Division, and the Office of Infrastructure Protection. This study evaluates the short-term and long-term impacts of pandemic influenza on U.S. households and industrial output. Infrastructures have incurred short-term disruptions while the nation’s population and workforce have decreased in absolute terms. Consumer spending reductions also result from the psychological impacts of the outbreak. The U.S. economy has proven resilient to disasters and will likely return to its previous growth rate trend. However, due to mortality associated with a pandemic, the base from which growth occurs would be smaller. Based on prior pandemics, the REMI model estimates the impacts of workplace absenteeism from a macroeconomic perspective.

Department of Homeland Security – Economic Modeling for the Analysis of Pandemic Influenza [Full PDF]

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

The benefits of cost-effective investments in energy efficiency and/or renewable energy can span the economy by lowering energy costs for consumers and businesses, increasing productivity for businesses, and creating jobs. Renewable energy resources and technologies provide a growing number of economic benefits and employment for millions of Americans. This trend is enhanced by many state and local energy efficiency and renewable energy programs and policies, generating numerous economic benefits along the way. To quantify the economic impacts of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies, the REMI model illustrated how investments spread the economic value across the broader community.

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, EPA [Full PDF]

Comments Concerning the Proposed Rulemaking to Revise Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards

The EPCA (Energy Policy and Conservation Act) is required to issue “maximum feasibility” standards for manufacturers’ fleets that the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) must adhere to. The EPCA must balance factors including technological feasibility, economic practicability, the effect of motor vehicle standards of the Government on fuel economy, and the need for the United States to conserve energy.

The REMI model was utilized to examine the potential changes in vehicle sales from both state and federal vehicle standards as well as possible changes in employment, GDP, and income. Overall, the REMI model found that the direction of the long-term macroeconomic impacts from vehicle standards is positive, primarily a result of fuel savings and industry investment outweighing increased vehicle technology costs, even with lower projected fuel prices than anticipated in 2012 and higher technology cost assumptions which do not reflect the most current estimates.

Union of Concerned Scientists – Comments Concerning the Proposed Rulemaking to Revise Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards Technical Appendix [Full PDF]

EPA and DOT – Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards [Full PDF]

 

The National Economic Impacts of Current Legislative Proposals to Change the Capital Gains Tax

REMI was entrusted, by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CTUP), to perform a national economic impact analysis of the three proposed changes to the STEP Act (Sensible Taxation and Equity Promotions): the repeal of the step-up basis at death, making death a tax realization event and increasing the tax liability of common trusts utilized for small businesses, families, and privately-owned enterprises.

REMI analysis accounted for the proposed changes under a top combined capital gains tax rate of 43.4%, adding the Administration’s proposed 38.6% top capital gains tax rate and the existing 3.8% net investment income tax (NIIT). The findings demonstrated effects on GDP, employment rate, private investment spending, R&D spending, and personal income, all of which demonstrated significant negative economic impacts. The study continues to deduce the drivers of these effects to several key factors.

 

The-National-Economic-Impacts-of-Current-Legislative-Proposals-to-Change-the-Capital-Gains-Tax [Full PDF]

Energy Efficiency’s Role in a Carbon Cap-and-Trade System: Modeling Results from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative

The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy created a report to summarize the regional effects of increased energy efficiency investments in a carbon cap-and-trade policy framework. This, at the time, was the most specific study conducted on energy efficiency’s impact on factors such as allowance prices, energy prices, and economic growth. This report focused on the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a nine-state effort, to develop a regional carbon cap-and-trade system between Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware. The REMI model was utilized to conduct extensive modeling to assess RGGI’s potential impacts.

The REMI input-output model displayed the positive impacts of increased efficiency investment. An analysis of energy savings from other modeling results showed that 2021 household electricity bills would be an average of $109 less than the reference case demonstrating consumer energy savings. Economic output based on doubling efficiency demonstrated an increased regional economic growth from almost no effect to 0.6% in 2021 compared to the reference case.

 

RGGI Energy Efficiency and Cap and Trade [Full PDF]