The Perils of Efficiency: An Analysis of an Unexpected Closure of the Poe Lock and its Impact

The infrastructure for iron mining, integrated steel production, and manufacturing supply chain has little resilience despite being one of the nation’s most economically vital systems. The Poe Lock at the Soo Locks connecting Lakes Huron and Superior is a potential single point of failure in this supply chain. The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis conducted an analysis using the REMI PI+ economic model that forecasts an unexpected 6-month closure of the locks and the impact on the supply chain, automobile manufacturing industry, and the National economy. The key findings of this study revealed that a disruption of the Poe Lock will likely cause an almost complete shutdown of Great Lakes steel production.

Department of Homeland Security – The Perils of Efficiency: An Analysis of an Unexpected Closure of the Poe Lock and its Impact [Full PDF]

Economic Modeling for the Analysis of Pandemic Influenza

This study was prepared by the Department of Homeland Security, National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center, Infrastructure Analysis and Strategy Division, and the Office of Infrastructure Protection. This study evaluates the short-term and long-term impacts of pandemic influenza on U.S. households and industrial output. Infrastructures have incurred short-term disruptions while the nation’s population and workforce have decreased in absolute terms. Consumer spending reductions also result from the psychological impacts of the outbreak. The U.S. economy has proven resilient to disasters and will likely return to its previous growth rate trend. However, due to mortality associated with a pandemic, the base from which growth occurs would be smaller. Based on prior pandemics, the REMI model estimates the impacts of workplace absenteeism from a macroeconomic perspective.

Department of Homeland Security – Economic Modeling for the Analysis of Pandemic Influenza [Full PDF]

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

The benefits of cost-effective investments in energy efficiency and/or renewable energy can span the economy by lowering energy costs for consumers and businesses, increasing productivity for businesses, and creating jobs. Renewable energy resources and technologies provide a growing number of economic benefits and employment for millions of Americans. This trend is enhanced by many state and local energy efficiency and renewable energy programs and policies, generating numerous economic benefits along the way. To quantify the economic impacts of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies, the REMI model illustrated how investments spread the economic value across the broader community.

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, EPA [Full PDF]

Comments Concerning the Proposed Rulemaking to Revise Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards

The EPCA (Energy Policy and Conservation Act) is required to issue “maximum feasibility” standards for manufacturers’ fleets that the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) must adhere to. The EPCA must balance factors including technological feasibility, economic practicability, the effect of motor vehicle standards of the Government on fuel economy, and the need for the United States to conserve energy.

The REMI model was utilized to examine the potential changes in vehicle sales from both state and federal vehicle standards as well as possible changes in employment, GDP, and income. Overall, the REMI model found that the direction of the long-term macroeconomic impacts from vehicle standards is positive, primarily a result of fuel savings and industry investment outweighing increased vehicle technology costs, even with lower projected fuel prices than anticipated in 2012 and higher technology cost assumptions which do not reflect the most current estimates.

Union of Concerned Scientists – Comments Concerning the Proposed Rulemaking to Revise Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards Technical Appendix [Full PDF]

EPA and DOT – Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards [Full PDF]

 

The National Economic Impacts of Current Legislative Proposals to Change the Capital Gains Tax

REMI was entrusted, by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CTUP), to perform a national economic impact analysis of the three proposed changes to the STEP Act (Sensible Taxation and Equity Promotions): the repeal of the step-up basis at death, making death a tax realization event and increasing the tax liability of common trusts utilized for small businesses, families, and privately-owned enterprises.

REMI analysis accounted for the proposed changes under a top combined capital gains tax rate of 43.4%, adding the Administration’s proposed 38.6% top capital gains tax rate and the existing 3.8% net investment income tax (NIIT). The findings demonstrated effects on GDP, employment rate, private investment spending, R&D spending, and personal income, all of which demonstrated significant negative economic impacts. The study continues to deduce the drivers of these effects to several key factors.

 

The-National-Economic-Impacts-of-Current-Legislative-Proposals-to-Change-the-Capital-Gains-Tax [Full PDF]