Economic Impact of Disruption to All Sectors for the State of Tennessee, the Nashville MSA, and the Clarksville MSA

The Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce’s Research Center recently completed a report that used the REMI model to analyze employment levels in the city of Nashville, the city of Clarksville, and the rest of Tennessee as a result of the outbreak of COVID-19. This assessment also evaluated how long it might take for certain sectors to reach pre-COVID-19 economic activity provided the pandemic does not intensify. Researchers calculated how each region’s job numbers, real gross domestic product, personal income, and disposable personal income have declined and forecasted the impact of these decreased totals out to the year 2030. The report also considered several different restart dates in order to compare the varying feasibility of a statewide resumption of pre-COVID-19 activity.

Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce – Economic Impact of Disruption to All Sectors for the State of Tennessee, the Nashville MSA and the Clarksville MSA [full PDF]

Potential Economic Impacts of COVID-19 in the SCAG Region

The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) incorporated the REMI model into their analysis of the potential employment and taxable sales implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, with preliminary estimates showing a possible decrease in taxable sales of 26% to 38% over 2020-2021 and annual average unemployment rates of 19.3% in 2020 and 12.2% in 2021. Researchers developed assumptions of prospective direct shocks to output that specific industries are facing due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and used them as inputs into the REMI model to better evaluate some of the regional economic implications. This examination also considered select industry-specific output assumptions to industries such as oil, gas and petroleum; food and drink; retail and wholesale; tourism; and more. SCAG then concluded this preliminary assessment by outlining possible next steps to utilize as the pandemic progresses and more information becomes available.

Southern California Association of Governments – Potential Economic Impacts of COVID-19 in the SCAG Region [full PDF]

Economic Impacts of Increased Federal Funding in Missouri Associated with an Expansion of its MO HealthNet Program

Missouri remains as one of the handful of states that have not expanded Medicaid under the guidelines of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which led the Missouri Foundation for Health to collaborate with REMI to examine the economic impacts associated with Medicaid expansion in the state. A 6-region, 70-industry PI+ model of Missouri was utilized to consider two categories of direct impacts of the increase in federal funding, which were net new health care spending in Missouri and the reduction of state government spending on the MO HealthNet. This report compiled the economic impacts on Missouri as they relate to employment, economic output, gross domestic product, and personal income.

Missouri Foundation for Health – Economic Impacts of Increased Federal Funding in Missouri [full PDF]

The COVID-19 Pandemic in the Tampa Bay Area and Florida: A Preliminary Economic Impact Assessment

The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council prepared a preliminary analysis of COVID-19’s impact on the state of Florida and the Tampa Bay Area economy by implementing the REMI PI+ model to quantify the loss of spending activity and the indirect economic effects of that lost spending activity. The Council used the model in combination with the World Health Organization’s death rates by age data to forecast the loss of life from COVID-19 by simulating a change to population survival rates by age cohort in each of the Tampa Bay Area’s counties and the rest of the state in three “what if” scenarios. Their evaluation discovered that a contraction of the American economy of 10% and the increased mortality rate generates an 11.4% loss in Florida’s Gross Domestic Product and an 11.7% loss in the Tampa Bay Area.

Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council – The COVID-19 Pandemic in the Tampa Bay Area and Florida: A Preliminary Economic Impact Assessment [full PDF]

Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Estimates for Hampton Roads

The Hampton Roads Planning District Commission used their REMI PI+ model to provide estimates for two scenarios, moderate and severe, in this initial attempt to understand the potential economic impacts of COVID-19 on their region. Both scenarios resulted in significant declines for the region’s employment and gross domestic product estimates compared to 2019 actual values, with an approximate total of 35,000 to 50,000 jobs lost due to the pandemic. Despite these staggering figures, the decreases that the Hampton Roads area will experience fall below the projected national average thanks to the unique stability of the region’s workforce that places a heavy emphasis on federal employees and imports/exports.

Hampton Roads Planning District Commission – Economic Impacts of COVID-19 – Estimates for Hampton Roads [full PDF]