Considering a Tax on Carbon

The Biden administration recently unveiled their ambitious goal of reducing America’s greenhouse gas emissions to half of our 2005 level by 2030, which prompted institutions and government officials to deliberate on how the country might hit this new target.

One idea that has continued to surface during the emissions and energy efficiency conversation over the years is the concept of a national fee-and-dividend carbon tax. This proposal has been given new life with the president’s announcement on Earth Day, in addition to the discussions surrounding the prospect of a carbon tax at the state level and even internationally.

An article published in Washington Monthly expanded on the discourse related to a possible carbon tax and provided a recounting of the historical trajectory of carbon tax proposals in this country. There have been numerous obstacles that appeared since the concept arose in the legislative landscape, with both sides of the aisle lending their voices to the ongoing carbon tax dialogue.

As the federal government continues to assess the situation, some states are analyzing how they can get a head start and begin implementing some form of carbon pricing within their borders. New York State, for example, has taken the initiative on climate policy in recent years, as covered by City & State New York, and officials are continuing on this path forward as they evaluate the potential impact of the carbon tax elements within the proposed Climate and Community Investment Act.

This policy would impose a $55 charge on every short ton of carbon dioxide emissions, which could equate to up to $15 billion annually for the Empire State. There are several questions about the bill that need to be addressed before it could have enough support to pass, but experts believe that the uptick of new reforms approved by the state’s government point to a more accepting political atmosphere in which to have meaningful climate discussions.

The concept of a carbon tax has also extended beyond the United States as other countries and international institutions have begun researching and suggesting new requirements that might benefit the world as a whole. According to an article produced by Bloomberg Green, the International Chamber of Shipping approached the United Nations to provide a proposal for a global carbon tax on international freight entities that has support from 90% of the world’s merchant fleet. This would be in conjunction with previous measures implemented to lower emissions from international trade so as to accomplish the overarching carbon reduction goals set at the global level.

The REMI model has been utilized in two studies that analyzed the various impacts of a national carbon tax in both 2014 and 2018 that have often been cited as more organizations urge legislators to consider implementing some type of policy that would aim to reduce emissions in this country. You can read the 2014 report completed by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. and REMI by clicking here. The 2018 study conducted by FTI Consulting, Inc. can also be accessed by clicking here.

Le-Le Zou, Ph.D. from the Chinese Academy of Sciences will also be joining REMI on May 20th for a special guest webinar that will highlight the research and advancements related to China’s emission reduction progress. You can find more information about this presentation and register to attend Dr. Zou’s discussion next month by clicking here.

If you would like to read the full article published by Washington Monthly, you are welcome to click here.

You can also find City & State New York‘s story about New York’s legislative proposals by clicking here.

Click here to access the Bloomberg Green Article on the proposed international carbon tax and follow these developments as they unfold.

Social Equity & Inclusive Economics

A new focus has emerged in economics and public policy as governments at all levels have started incorporating measures intended to enhance social equity into their planning procedures. Increased access to affordable housing and the reallocation of resources are just some examples of the aspects that are now being considered during the legislative cycle in order to potentially address the deficiencies created by previous domestic policies.

The concern surrounding social inclusion has made its way to the federal government with yesterday’s announcement of the first step of the American Jobs Plan by President Joe Biden. This initial portion of the president’s legislative initiative targets infrastructure improvements across the board, but the second half is expected to be proposed later this month and will aim to fund educational and social programs related to housing, workforce development, racial equity, and more. The New York Times published an article that outlined the various provisions of this infrastructure bill and quantified how many sections of our transportation network stand to be repaired or replaced while alluding to some of the anticipated elements that could be included in the plan’s second step.

At the local level, the COVID-19 pandemic actually afforded the Town of Breckenridge, CO the ability to reevaluate how they plan their tourism activities and future events so that they can become even more inclusive and influential for the surrounding community. The Summit Daily news outlet recently covered the use of a town-wide survey to better assess the overall effectiveness of prior events, as well as the potential implementation of requirements for prospective functions to meet certain equity and sustainability standards before receiving approval.

Meanwhile, some legislators remain hesitant when considering the new push for social equity, updated climate policy, and inclusive economics. Reuters released an article that detailed Republican Senator Pat Toomey’s apprehension toward the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s research into climate change, income equality, and other social topic areas. Sen. Toomey penned a letter asking for information about the Fed’s examinations, which he believes are detracting from what he sees as their primary analytical concerns and facilitating a social agenda.

REMI was joined in February by Colby Lancelin, Principal Planning Coordinator for the Atlanta Regional Commission, for a guest webinar presentation that explored the long-term economic and demographic changes that were generated by the outbreak of COVID-19. “Pandemic and the Economy: Crisis Diverted?” contained outlines of how to use the REMI model when evaluating various potential scenarios, determining the corresponding outcomes, and assessing how current and future policies might impact regional populations.

Click here to access The New York Times‘s description of the American Jobs Plan.

You can also read the Summit Daily article by clicking here.

To access the Reuters article, you can click here for more information.

Feel free to review the presentation slides and a recording of Mr. Lancelin’s guest webinar on our website by clicking here.

Economic Impact of the Gaming Industry

Florida’s three primary gambling sectors – pari-mutuel, lottery, and Indian casinos – have been viewed as a means of increasing state revenue and funding community development projects. The continued economic effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing recession have left legislative officials to determine how to bring sports gambling into the fold and properly tax new revenue streams.

A bill proposed by Florida State Senator Jeff Brandes would collectively legalize statewide mobile sports betting. The online news outlet Space Coast Daily recently published an article detailing that, if passed, Senator Brandes’s proposed legislation would legalize placing wagers on both professional and collegiate sports, taxing all winnings at a rate of 15 percent.

Earlier this month, REMI provided a webinar presentation, “The Future of Sports Betting,” that used our Tax-PI model to analyze the economic effects of sports gambling in states that have already established some version of sports betting, evaluate a scenario of a new state adopting a similar policy, and demonstrate how to assess the corresponding tax revenue impacts.

Our upcoming REMI discussion, “Economic Outlook: Florida,” analyzes the trajectory of Florida’s economy and evaluates the short- and long-term economic outlook for the state by using our Policy Insight model.

Click here to find the Space Coast Daily article on Florida’s sports betting prospects.

Please use the links below to view the complete proposed legislation on sports betting in Florida:

SB 392: Sports Wagering

SB 394: Taxes

SB 396: Fees/Sports Wagering

Feel free to review the presentation slides and a recording of our “The Future of Sports Betting” discussion by clicking here.

You can also find more information about our REMI Economic Outlook Webinar Series by clicking here.

REMI March Economic Forecast Update Now Available

We have uploaded the most recent GDP economic forecast update to our website for all of our clients to download and install into their respective models.

This update of the national forecast is based on the 2019-2020 historical data from BEA released on January 28, 2021, The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2020-2022 from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) released on February 19, 2021, and The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 from CBO released in January and February 2021.

You can access this newest file and all of our previous economic forecast updates by clicking here.

Be sure to check this web page at your convenience to get all of the latest forecast updates for your dynamic economic modeling software.

Understanding State Economies Using Economic Modeling

Organizations and institutions of all kinds are implementing dynamic economic modeling techniques in order to better comprehend the inner workings of their local economies. These entities have realized that they can use new tools and applications to more accurately examine the current state of their regions, which then enhances their ability to appropriately adjust legislation and plan for the future.

The nonprofit news site Crosscut recently published an article discussing some of the developments within the state of Washington and the potential policy trajectories that might be proposed during their legislative session.

Included in this story was a description of the Washington State Budget & Policy Center’s use of the REMI model to analyze the employment and budgetary impacts of establishing a tax on the state’s wealthiest households. Their assessment of the state’s tax structure also involved scenarios considering how budget cuts could negatively affect what they identified as the most regressive tax system in the nation.

The state of Wyoming’s tax system was also evaluated earlier this year using the Wyoming Department of Administration & Information’s REMI model as they took a closer look at the state’s various tax exemptions. The County17 news outlet in Wyoming detailed the results of this exploration of their current tax structure and its overall effectiveness regarding employment, investment, revenue, and more.

Last week, REMI provided a webinar presentation, “Economic Outlook: Washington,” that used our Policy Insight model to highlight the economic and demographic indicators involved in the state of Washington’s short-, medium-, and long-term economic outlook after the election of a new president and the emergence of COVID-19.

You can access the Crosscut website and read more about Washington’s tax policy options by clicking here.

Click here to find the County17 article on Wyoming’s tax exemptions.

Feel free to visit our “Economic Outlook: Washington” webpage to review the presentation slides and a recording of the webinar by clicking here.